Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
